*allPM Co-publisher's Letter, Judy Umlas

*From the Co-publisher's Desk, Frank Saladis, PMP

*allPM June Poll Results

*Theme of the Month: Estimating Tools and Techniques by DW Nesper, PMP

*PM Poetry™: Working on a Project with Unclear Needs by Bob Mittelsdorf, PMP

*Hey You...Get Back In The Box!!! by Paul R. Williams, PMP

*The Importance of Interpersonal Skills in Project Management: The Four Triads of Project Management by Deb Filler and Jeff Harris

*Managing Project Performance: A Proposed Model (Part 2 of 3) by Mark "Doc" Dochtermann, (PMP, CISSP)

*Risk Doctor Briefing: How to find Opportunities, © 2005, Dr David Hillson PMP FAPM

*Teaching Project Management as a Life Skill to Previously Disadvantaged Youth in South Africa Part Two, by Reggie Brown, PMP

*Project Management Perfectionism: A not-so-perfect trait
by Vivek Lakshman

*Positive Leadership In Project Management - Connecting With Executives by Frank P. Saladis, PMP

*International Project Management Day - Scope Statement by Frank P. Saladis, PMP

*PM Crossword Connections™ - Having Fun While Learning the PMBOK® Guide: "Quality Check", by Frank Saladis, PMP

Past Issues- Archives

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Hey! I really missed you guys — all 27,606 of you! This year we are having a "summer" edition of allPM Today (July/August), so I felt the lack of post newsletter communication and feedback last month, which you are getting better and better at giving. I really do ADORE getting to know more of you personally through your feedback. It is a truly awesome role and responsibility that lucky Frank and I share, so once again I thank you for being there and communicating. MORE, please!!! I have been called "high maintenance" (but otherwise delightful) in my time, and maybe at least a few of you can now see why...

Okay, so now please fasten your seatbelts, hold on to your hats, or do whatever you do to keep yourselves steady. I know I keep saying things like this, but you just won't believe what I am about to tell you THIS time!!! Do you remember our new friend Imoh Usoro, a PM in a bank in Nigeria who felt very lonely in his field and told us how valuable allPM.com was to him? Well a few days after that newsletter went out with his picture in it, I received the following email with the subject line, "Wow! Imoh Usoro, that's my friend!" It said:

"Dear Judy,

I'm one of those people that are being blessed by the monthly allPM community Newsletter. I was very happy when I read about my old school friend, Imoh Usoro at Federal University of Technology in Owerri Nigeria, where we studied project management. Please, could you link me to him.

Moreover, I equally wish to use this opportunity, to congratulate you for the good work you are doing at allPM.com. You may not know how your work is being appreciated here in Africa. Thanks for everything and remain blessed.

Best regards, Samuel Udoka."

Of course I put them together via email and they will be seeing each other face to face in the near future. We have known for a long time that allPM.com was a global people connector — but isn't this just TOO COOL???? Next we might consider starting up a PM matchmaking service, PM Personals (now I'm really getting carried away)...

One more thing I must share from someone from another part of the world, this time France. Project Manager Nadia Circelli recently wrote to me: "You know, one night I was admiring the stars from my terrace and I thought of you, that we were sharing the same stars even if you were far and living in a completely different part of the world and for you it was not night yet." (Isn't that a beautiful sentiment? That moved me to tears, I must admit. It is pure poetry, in my view!).

"Through you and your site," Nadia continued, "I have been able to meet people that I admire and that I feel are close to me and my way of seeing the world and I would like so much to meet them, talk to them and become friends. With people like (article authors) Kate McLeod, Sheilina Somani I feel that we are similar and that we could be good friends and I would feel so honored to meet Franck Saladis and George Pitagorsky!"

Well Nadia, all of us would love to meet you and maybe one day that will happen — and we would love to meet others of you who come our way. In fact, any of you who will be at PMI's Global Congress in Toronto, please make sure to stop by Booth #1303 and say hello!

So, now on to this edition of allPM Today and its highlights. First of all, our theme of the month is Estimating Tools and Techniques, and we have a first class article by DW Nesper, PMP on that hot topic. We have Part 2 of a 3 part series on Managing Project Performance - a Proposed Framework by Mark "Doc" Dochtermann. Part 1 was one of our all time best-read articles, so we hope you will find Part 2 as riveting. We have a delightful article by allPM.com member Paul R. Williams, Hey You - Get Back in the Box!! In it, he discusses the challenge of managing integrated scope control without stifling an atmosphere of creative and innovative thought. Thanks, Paul for submitting the article to us! Now here's one of my new favorite topics, the subject of an article by member Vivek Lakshman of India: Project Management Perfectionism - a Not-So-Perfect Trait. Vivek proposed the topic to me some months ago, and I groaned loudly and told him to develop it. It's an "ouch" topic about a syndrome that probably a lot of us suffer from. In any event, he has some great suggestions for overcoming it (but this newsletter is still coming out later than we planned because of my not-so-perfect perfectionistic tendencies). Oh well...

We also have another helpful article in the Positive Leadership in Project Management series by Co-Publisher Frank Saladis, this one on Connecting with Executives. In addition, we have another of Frank's wonderful PM Crossword Connections™ - Having Fun While Learning the PMBOK® Guide, this one entitled "Quality Check." There is a Risk Briefing by Dr. David Hillson, PMP about the side of risk that deals with opportunities, not threats. It makes good reading, especially in all five languages he has provided it in! Please do check them out! We also have more PM Poetry™ -- this time a take-off on Robert Frost's Stopping By Woods on a Snowy Evening called Working on a Project with Unclear Needs. It is by talented PM poet Bob Mittelsdorf, PMP from Singapore.

We are also thrilled to have the second in a series of articles by Reggie Brown, PMP entitled Teaching Project Management as a Life Skill to Previously Disadvantaged Youth in South Africa. We celebrate this initiative undertaken by UkuZwana Project Management Solutions and look forward to sharing other examples of people using PM to help people.

In this issue of allPM Today, we want to announce a new initiative launched by Frank Saladis, called International Project Management Day. He has thought for some time that PMs and PM teams don't get the recognition, thanks and praise that they deserve, so he has called for a special day — November 3 this year — to make that happen. There are many activities that you can create, organize and participate in order to join in with us, examples of which are outlined in his project scope statement for the special day in this newsletter. We urge all of you to get involved, even if it's in a small way, and to participate in starting this as a yearly tradition. It will benefit every one of us in this challenging and rewarding profession. In fact, you could try what we are attempting, which is to have the Mayor of New York City declare it "International Project Management Day" throughout the city! Let us know what results you get from your efforts, and we will rep ort on them! allPM.com, IIL and PM Forum are sponsors of this very exciting project and other organizations may want to join in as well.

So, all of this reading and thinking and incorporating new ideas ought to keep you pretty busy as the lazy (ha!) days of summer wane and we head into the new and hectic fall season, at least in this part of the world. So PLEASE communicate with me (or I will get grumpy) and let me know how we -- and you -- are doing. Until the next time...

© 2005 allPM.com

Judy Umlas Co-publisher allPM.com
Judy.Umlas@allPM.com

SWAGS, WAGNERS, and BONSOPS: Estimating at its best!

Estimating is a key activity in the planning of any project. For some project managers, it's kind of an art form; for others it's a disciplined process that produces quantifiable approximations. Quantifiable approximations! Well, its sounds impressive. Estimates are guesses. We base them on information we have obtained from other projects, our experience, some tried and true techniques, and maybe a few computerized tools. It is our attempt to predict the future outcome of a project activity as best we can with the information we have available. We consider contingencies, alternatives, and some flexibility by adding a little range to the estimate to determine as closely as possible what should happen.

I read an article some time ago that asked the question “How accurate should your estimate be?” Interesting question, since we are actually talking about a guess. Of course we would like our estimates to be as accurate as possible, but since we work mainly in that territory known as “relative uncertainty,” the accuracy of our estimates depends heavily on what we know, what we learned from previous experience, and the risks that must be considered. A common technique for estimating is the SWAG. Some of you may not be familiar with this term but I “estimate” that most of you will recognize this as a “Scientific Wild A** Guess.” Yes that's right and its more common than you may think. The WAGNER is something I picked up at UCF. It's a Wild A** Guess Not Entirely Realistic. The BONSOP is my favorite. I learned this from engineers in a company in Michigan that designed aircraft. It's the Back of Napkin Seat of Pants approach. These may not seem to be very reliable but they are all forms of expert judgment and expert judgment is something that is commonly practiced when estimating project activity duration and costs.

There are certainly more sophisticated estimating tools and techniques available such as cost estimation models, sensitivity analysis, PERT weighted average estimates, and Monte Carlo simulation but all of them in some way rely on the input of experienced functional managers and subject matter experts. It is important to remember that estimating and risk management are part of an estimating alliance. If risk is not considered, the estimate is sure to be well off the mark when results are reviewed.

Here are a few more things to consider when estimating task durations and cost: “Estimates based on averages will be wrong on average”. I found that quote while doing research about Monte Carlo simulations. If you think about it, it makes perfect sense. Most experienced project managers know that it would be very surprising (and rare) for all work results to come in at the average value. Variations can and should be expected. It is possible to determine the probability of an outcome based on the type of distribution but it's still a “guess.” Another interesting item is the brief story of the statistician who drowned while crossing a river that was on average only three feet deep. We need to watch out for those averages. They can be very misleading. Remember variance and standard deviation? Estimating is a necessary part of planning. Care should be taken to obtain the best, most reliable information and use the most appropriate tools for the job. Projects that have a significant need for safety and where human life can be affected should use high quality tools and a very methodical approach to estimating. Projects that allow greater flexibility in the estimating process may not need a rigorous estimating process. It all depends on the type of project and the expectations of your stakeholders.

At allPM.com, our members are the stakeholders and each month we try to “estimate” what you, the stakeholder would like to read about. The feedback we get tells us that we are doing a pretty good job of fulfilling your expectations. This month, as you can guess by now, the theme is “Estimating Tools and Techniques”. In my “estimation” you will find a significant amount of information that will take some of the SWAGs and WAGNERs out of your estimating process. At least I'm guessing that it will!

© 2005 allPM.com

Frank P. Saladis, PMP
Frank.Saladis@allpm.com

Do you Baseline your Projects?

Only once – at the beginning of the project    41.30% (76)
A few times – during the project lifecycle    45.65% (84)
Every week – my projects are always on track    3.80% (7)
Never–how to escape accountability    9.24% (17)

Total votes: 184

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If you have not already done so, please stop by allPM.com and add your opinion today.

This article will address general estimation techniques commonly used when planning projects and how they can help improve the accuracy and reliability of estimates prepared by project team members.

Before we progress too far, it is important to set some expectations upfront (very much like what we should do before we begin any project). This article discusses:

• General estimation techniques
• Other important estimating considerations
• What estimation tools will and will not do (in general terms)
• Some of the factors to be considered when selecting estimation tools with metrics in mind

This article does not discuss evaluations of estimation tools or the merits of different estimation methods. It also does not discuss the value or validity of one unit of measure vs. another, how to precede, things to consider, or how to perform estimation.

© 2005 allPM.com

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Whose needs these are I think I know,
But understanding eludes me, so
they can not make the project clear.
And thus the work piles up, goes slow.

My little team must think it queer
to work when needs remain unclear.
Between the changes and mistakes,
it's the darkest project of the year.

They give their all to make it work,
but there is not a bit of hope
to bring this project in on scope
and make me look not like a jerk.

The project's lousy, scope will creep.
But I have milestones to meet,
too many milestones to meet,
too many milestones to meet.

© 2005 allPM.com

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Creativity gurus have been saying for years that we need to “think outside of the box” when approaching business processes or policies. Indeed, it has been proven that creative business thought leads to more innovation, better solutions, and increased efficiency. However, in the context of formal project management, that exuberant ingenuity can lead to scope creep or even worse, the addition of unnecessary features, better known as gold-plating. So how do you manage integrated scope control without stifling an atmosphere of creative and innovative thought?

The pursuit of complex projects is often a risky business. Cutting edge technology, fuzzy requirements, and a lack of visible project results often lead these types of projects off course. Business problems and/or opportunities, and the projects created to address these issues, are often resolved through creative thought, alternatives identification, risk taking, business unit involvement, and upper-management championing.

© 2005 allPM.com

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Historically, the skills of managing the project budget, schedule, and resources have been viewed as the key to delivering successful projects. These three skills are often pictured as a triangle with one skill assigned to each side, or as a three legged stool. Take one skill away and the stool collapses. There is no denying the importance of any of these skills; they are tangible, measurable, and learnable.

Over the years, we have taught and mentored project managers and then monitored their projects. They could develop a work breakdown structure (WBS) expertly, estimate hours, and assign resources with ease; they managed scope and solicited requirements from users with precision and confidence. They would even measure the work - executing the technical skills of the triangle. Still failure came all too often.

What was missing? Why do so many projects falter or fail? We can learn the technical skills. We have tools to assist with those skills. Yet in spite of all the technical tools, we fail all too often.

In our search to answer the question “why?” we analyzed project reports and “lessons learned” documents from the past 10 years of our organization. We discovered that too many project managers focus so much energy on using the technical skills that they overlook what successful project managers know to be true – there is a human side to projects.

© 2005 allPM.com

This is a three part series of articles that provides the reader with a proposed model for assessment and review of key areas that can offer significant potential for improving how we define and track the performance of our projects.

This article is directed primarily toward managers of the Project Management Office (PMO) and those individuals who are planning on implementing tools and processes to support an enterprise-wide project management discipline.

© 2005 allPM.com

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Describing risk as "uncertainty that matters" allows for different types of consequences, and leading standards and guidelines define the concept of risk to include both upside as well as downside impacts. This means that the word "risk" can be used to describe uncertainties which if they occurred would have a negative or harmful effect, and the same word can also describe uncertainties which if they occurred would be helpful. In short, there are two types of risk: threats and opportunities.

Accepting this in principle is one thing; using it in practice is another. The traditional risk process (initiate, identify, assess/analyse, plan responses, implement, review) can clearly be used to handle both threats and opportunities. But people who have only used this process to identify and manage threats sometimes have problems extending it to deal effectively with opportunities. And the difficulties start right at the beginning: how can we identify opportunities?

The first step is to be clear about what we are looking for: uncertainties which might or might not occur, but which if they did happen would help us to achieve our objectives, for example allowing us to work smarter, faster or cheaper.

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Click here to read Part 1

Project Management competency is not only relevant for the professional who must rely on the skill for the successful completion of projects. Learning how to apply project management can enable youth as they undertake their specific projects. These skills learned at an early age can be leveraged as they pursue their respective careers.

Our project has recruited 12 students from Langa Township in South Africa who attend the LEAP Science and Math School. These disciples were motivated to see that an adequate study facility be constructed for them. Their current environment, consisting of a wooden shack with no furniture and very little lighting, was getting outdated.

Project-based Project Management Training provides an extremely effective environment that guarantees learning will take place. That we are undertaking a project which provides an almost immediate desired benefit to the learner is icing on the cake.

© 2005 allPM.com

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Do you set unrealistic goals for yourself and your team? Do you often wonder if your good is good enough? Do you always wish things were perfect - that your project had no cost overruns, was always on time with the highest quality levels; that there were no people issues and that the customer were truly delighted with the output? While we all wish things were perfect, more often than not, things aren't that way. If that bothers you too much, it could be a cause for concern. You could be suffering from perfectionism - an irrational belief that you and your environment must always be perfect.

Perfectionist, is that you? Perfectionists strive to be the best, to reach the ideal and to never make a mistake. They usually fear failure and rejection by others. A senior project manager that I worked with was so obsessed with quality and mistake-proofing that he ended up creating a huge, impractical infrastructure and processes for ensuring quality. He was extremely detail-oriented and made small tasks seem insurmountably large. The result was employee de-motivation and too much policing to get the smallest job done.

Such persons never believe in delegation since they feel that there could be the possibility of inconsistencies or loss of quality if they did. They also have the tendency to micro-manage. They would be not just concerned about the end, but also the means to it. All this results in their leading a stressful lifestyle and creating stress for others because they are unrelenting in their quest to achieve perfection in everything they do.

© 2005 allPM.com

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Project managers meet together for several reasons. They discuss lessons learned, celebrate project successes, discuss opportunities for improvement, and network to obtain best practices that can be taken back to their own projects or PMOs. One subject, widely discussed by project managers that seems to raise blood pressures, create anxiety, and in some cases, genuine concern about future employment is the "gap" between project managers and executives regarding the definition of project management and the value of project management to an organization.

At a PMI ® Syracuse, New York chapter meeting I attended earlier this year, the evening presentation and the subject of some lively (to say the least) discussion was "After 40 years, why are we still trying to justify the profession of project management?" This may not apply to all organizations that manage projects but for many project managers, there is definitely a disconnect between project managers and executives about the value of project management and exactly what benefits it provides. A participant at the Syracuse PMI meeting shared a rather interesting and yet somewhat surprising quote from his project executive sponsor. The quote is something you should remember as it gets at the very core of the issue of project management value. The quote was simple, straightforward, and directed to the project manager. The executive said "This project is going along very well, so what do I need you for?"

© 2005 allPM.com

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Goal: Worldwide recognition of the many project managers and project teams in every industry including non profit organizations and health care who contribute their time, energy, creativity, innovation, and countless hours to deliver products, services, facilities, and provide emergency and disaster recovery services in every city and community around the world.

Project Objective: Increase the awareness of the value of project management within the large business, government, small business, and social communities and promote project management as a true profession and key business strategy. This includes, but is not limited to: construction, information technology, entertainment, government, aeronautics, health care, ecology, social, disaster recovery, community improvement, and quality of life projects.

Project Deliverables: Local events planned and executed by organizations who wish to recognize project managers and project teams for their contributions. Suggested events: internal company meetings, presentations about the value of project management, recognition breakfasts, lunches or receptions honoring project teams, local government recognition or proclamation, coordinated Project Management professional association events (PMI, IPMA, AIPM, etc.)or recognition at a previously scheduled project management event. A series of (3) international web based events scheduled on Nov. 3 to officially kick off the day. These will be scheduled at three different times to accommodate the world PM community. Each session will include a brief opening presentation and keynote by a recognized project management author/ speaker. The sessions will be approximately 90 minutes in duration. An inquiry about PDUs for attendance will sent to the Project management Institute. A Registered Educational Provider may be required to sponsor these sessions.

The international project management day is intended to encourage project based organizations worldwide or organizations who utilize project management methodologies to schedule some type of recognition event within their organizations or coordinated locally with others to truly demonstrate appreciation for the achievements of project managers and their teams.

© 2005 allPM.com

Frank P. Saladis PMP
President NYC Chapter PMI

(Click here or the image above for a larger, printable crossword in a new window. )

Quality Check

Across

Down

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Click here to view/print the crossword solution: http://www.allpm.com/Crosswords/August2005answers.html