June/July 2007, Issue 92, Judy Umlas and Frank P. Saladis, Co-Publishers

In this Issue:

*allPM Co-publisher's Letter, Judy Umlas

*From the Co-publisher's Desk, Frank Saladis, PMP

*allPM May (coaching and mentoring) Poll Results and New Poll Question

*Tribute to Frank P. Saladis, PMP

*The Project Manager: Champion of Change
By Steve Blash, PMP

*Change Management – It’s About People, Not Just Process
By Frank P. Saladis PMP

*NEXT GENERATION PM -- Staging Change: The Right Support at the Right Time
By Jocelyn S. Davis, Co-Founder of the Positive Workplace Alliance

*Excerpt from The Zen Approach™ to Project Management
By George Pitagorsky, PMP

*Positive Leadership in Project Management – High Definition Project Management (HDPM™)
By Frank P. Saladis PMP

*Ask Harry! Effectively Communicating with Data
Harry Rever –Six Sigma Black Belt, PMP

*Excel Tips and Tricks
By Bob Umlas, Microsoft® Excel MVP

Risk Doctor: Problems with Probability
By Dr David Hillson

*PM Crossword Connections™: Change Challenge
By Frank Saladis, PMP

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From the Co-publisher's Desk— Judy Umlas

Dear allPM.com friends and colleagues,

When I sent out my “secret” email to all of our 40,000 allPM.com members in June about creating a special edition of allPM Today as a tribute to Co-Publisher Frank P. Saladis, PMP, I was thrilled that there was such an outpouring of acknowledgments for him. Not since 2004 have we had such an explosion of appreciation and just plain fun. At that time, I sent out an email to (only) 30,000 of you saying the following: “I’m depressed….and It’s your fault.” I wrote this because I had not gotten any response to the previous month’s newsletter (no feedback, no praise, and no constructive criticism) and I had had it. Even though I put together the next month’s newsletter, my heart just wasn’t in it. So I wrote that note and got the most phenomenal response I ever could have imagined – people saying what a great resource allPM.com was, how sorry they were for just taking and not giving, with promises of how they would contribute articles, PM poems, and more. I was thrilled and gratified. But the profusion of PM poems in honor of this great guy, as well as special Frank P. Saladis crossword puzzles, just plain tributes and – I am so pleased to say – a wonderful song that you can all play and enjoy on the allPM.com website, made me as excited, if not more!

Now tell me if you know of any other newsletter in the field of PM or any other subject that creates this kind of celebration in honor of one very, very special human being? (Pardon the bragging, but I’m sooooooo proud of your responses and contributions). As E. LaVerne Johnson, Founder, President and CEO of International Institute for Learning (IIL) states so appropriately in her tribute, Frank is a “PPMP” – a Passionate Project Management Professional.” He is always bringing glory to our profession, and we want to take this very special allPM Today edition to thank him wholeheartedly for everything that he has done for us and continues to do for the project management profession as a whole.

Sometimes Frank and I argue over ideas, how to present them, or just have different ways of looking at things. But I have enjoyed and benefited from working with him so much over these past five years that I just had to make sure that I have given back at least a little of what I have personally gained from our relationship. So “Cheers to Frank” in this special edition of allPM Today. I hope everyone, and especially Frank, enjoys reading your wonderful submissions as much as I have enjoyed assembling them. Be sure to check every tribute out and appreciate each other’s creativity, passion, inspiration, and willingness to fully acknowledge another person.

Now we do have other things in this edition of allPM Today, the theme of which is Change Management. We have some very thoughtful articles on the subject by Steve Blash, PMP and our honoree Frank Saladis, PMP himself. Each author comes to the subject from a very different perspective. As Steve Blash says, besides being a master of tasks, the project manager has to be a champion of the organizational changes and the resulting impact of these on the workers in the organization. We explore this challenge in this edition of allPM Today. Jocelyn Davis, author of the Next Generation PM column, writes about Staging Change: The Right Support at the Right Time. Her staged approach will give you some real how-to knowledge. Of course Frank gives us a change management crossword puzzle, so don’t forget to challenge yourselves with this fun distraction.

In the Ask Harry! Column, Harry Rever, PMP and Six Sigma master black belt answers the question, how can I communicate the status and direction of my project more effectively and persuasively? Harry gives the questioner some great responses, and you can benefit by “listening in” as well as sending in your own questions to Harry. David Hillson, PMP (aka the Risk Doctor), offers his Risk column on Problems with Probability. And Frank offers us yet another column on Positive Leadership in Project Management, which focuses on the newly created (by Frank) science of High Definition Project Management™ which you won’t want to miss.

We also have an exciting excerpt from the just released book, The Zen Approach™ to Project Management: Working from Your Center to Balance Expectations and Performance, by George Pitagorsky, PMP. In it he says projects are often more complex and stressful than they need to be, but that it is possible to remove the unnecessary stress and complexity from them. Your blood pressure will go down just by reading this introductory chapter and we are offering allPM.com members a 20% discount on the book.

Bob Umlas, Excel MVP, offers us another hot tip from the upcoming second edition of This Isn’t Excel, It’s Magic!, this one on the all-important “fill handle.” He says you will love this one! Please let me know if you do.

I also want to make sure that each and every one of you marks your calendars now with this date: Thursday, November 1, 2007. It's the third annual International Project Management Day, created by none other than our own visionary Frank P. Saladis. And stay tuned for details aboutthe global webcast that will take place on that day. You can all participate! We also have the second annual Kerzner International Project Manager of the Year Award that will be announced and presented on that day (go to www.iil.com/ipmday2007 for details). Be sure to nominate the phenomenal project manager that you think should be the winner this time around!

So as we think about change in this edition of allPM Today, the one thing that we can be unquestionably sure won’t change is the ongoing contributions made by our very own Frank P. Saladis, PPMP (Passionate Project Management Professional). I know you all join me in offering your congratulations and cheers to Frank. He got a little hint that something was coming when one of our members accidentally copied him on a return message to me (I kept worrying that I would do this, so you saved me from that), but I can guarantee you that he had no idea how generously, creatively and lovingly he would be acknowledged by so many of you. Thanks to all of our members who participated in giving this wonderful “gift” of acknowledgment to Frank. If somehow we missed yours, or if you want to add yours now that you have seen the rest, please send them to me at judy.umlas@allpm.com. It is never too late to add more acknowledgments of a worthy individual to the roster.

To all of you out there – you are the best!!! I am honored to be able to reach and to serve you.

Until the next time,

Judy Umlas
Co-Publisher, allPM.com
From the Co-publisher's Desk - Frank P. Saladis, PMP

Change is one thing that all project managers can count on. Napoleon Buonaparte was quoted as stating “the first casualty in a battle is the plan” and this is something that most project managers have become accustomed to. Basically this means that as soon as execution of a plan begins, it will be necessary to start re-planning because all plans are based on estimations, approximations, and guesses and during execution, many of the planned items do not actually turn out as planned. Additionally, the stakeholders who are involved or impacted by a project will generate change requests. Some of these requests will be beneficial or necessary and many will be rejected. Having a change control process in place is essential to manage these requests. But the greater challenge and a seemingly never-ending project manager struggle is enforcing the change control process, dealing with resistance, and the ever present “exception” to the process.

The project manager’s most common change management struggle is associated not with the process, but with the behavior of those who are affected by the process. A process for change control is not extremely difficult to establish and communicate. Change requests must be reviewed and approved, baselines must be established to compare planned results with actual results to identify variances, and approved changes must be implemented at the appropriate time. Actually getting people to follow the process can be a monumental effort. Project stakeholders often take shortcuts, make changes without authorization, act without thinking of the bigger picture, or just think that what they believe to be minor changes really don’t require a review or are exempt from the process. In order to manage changes effectively during project execution, freeze dates are set by the project manager and the team and then promptly ignored by many higher level managers who by-pass or simply ignore the process. This is an indication that the process will be followed only when convenient and creates a credibility problem for the project manager and the team. Others may simply forget the process or believe that it doesn’t include them. The real challenge, therefore, is not creating and communicating the process, but managing the behavior of the stakeholders involved in the process.
Another factor to consider is the ever present resistance to change. A bumper sticker reads – “Change is Good – You start.” This is just one indication that many people will not welcome a change, even if it clearly demonstrated to be beneficial.

The allPM.com theme this month is change management, something all project managers are quite familiar with and deal with on a daily basis. In this issue we look closely at the many factors and challenges associated with managing change and offer suggestions and techniques to improve the change management process itself while equipping project managers with some tools and ideas to manage the challenging “people side of change.” Our authors examine change management from several perspectives and the ideas and knowledge they share will definitely make a change in how you manage your projects.

Frank P. Saladis, PMP
Frank.Saladis@allpm.com

May's (coaching and mentoring) Poll Results

Does your organization have a coaching and/or mentoring program that is:

a) Informal but effective - 12.63 % (12)
b) Informal and not effective - 14.74 % (14)
c) Formalized and well-utilized - 4.21 % (4)
d) Formalized but less effective than it could be - 21.05 % (20)
e) No such program at all - 47.37 % (45)

Total votes: 95

The June/July poll question is:


How does your company handle changes to business?

a) Managing change is not required - No one does it
b) Business people handle changes - We don’t
c) We just provide any necessary training - We train
d) We identify a change agent -We do it all

If you have not already done so, please stop by allPM.com and add your opinion today.

Tribute to Frank P. Saladis

Close to 40,000 of you saw this email that was sent out on June 6, 2007. The amount of responses we received were overwhelming. Thank you to everyone who participated in the wonderful event that honors our co-publisher Frank P. Saladis, PMP.

Subject line: Shhhhhhhh! Don't Tell Frank P. Saladis, PMP!

Most of you know, love and admire our Co-Publisher, Frank P. Saladis, PMP. He has been working with me on allPM.com for the past five years, writing excellent articles on "Positive Leadership in Project Management," PM Poems, PM crossword puzzles and any other creative endeavor we decide to come up with.

Frank does this selflessly, and as a volunteer. I really want to honor Frank (please don't tell him), and so one of our upcoming issues will be dedicated solely to him. I would love to have it include the following:

-- at least one PM Poem about Frank -- several would be great!

-- a Frank Saladis crossword puzzle

-- an article about the contribution he makes on a regular basis to the PM profession, including his creation of International Project Management Day which is now celebrated globally every year

-- a song about Frank Saladis composed and sung by an allPM.com member who is brave enough (and good enough) to let us record it and play it on allPM.com as a download

-- anything else you can think of that highlights in both fun and serious ways, the contribution that Frank P. Saladis, PMP makes on a regular basis

Please tell me what you can and will do for this special edition of allPM Today, and send your creations to me as soon as possible. Of course there will be a theme of the month with real and serious PM articles, but as soon as we have enough pieces to constitute the Frank P. Saladis, PMP Special Edition of allPM Today, we will make it happen. Let's have great fun with this, and honor this very special person!

Click on link to read the tributes from allPM readers!
The Project Manager: Champion of Change
By Steve Blash, PMP


A natural by-product of any project is the inevitable changes which the organization will have to cope with upon project completion. Besides being a master of tasks, the project manager has to be a champion of the organizational changes and the resulting impact of these on the workers in the organization. Project success doesn’t just mean delivering on time, on budget and within scope. It also includes genuine acceptance by the people in the organization who will benefit from the project or, in some cases, be impacted negatively by it. Often, this aspect of the project is lightly touched upon or brushed aside as the project manager views these changes as merely part of project communications, i.e. (“Just tell the employees what needs to be done”), or training ("just send them to training"). In reality, acceptance of change can either make or break a project effort.

The completion of the project will always cause some sort of change to the organization’s structure, processes, systems and/or jobs (or maybe the justification for the project objective needs to be questioned?). Whenever change of any type happens within the organization it requires extensive planning and hard work to ensure the change is implemented in a manner that will be embraced. Let’s not get this type of change confused with the Change Control tasks which deal with specific changes within the project life cycle. This change deals with those individuals, or stakeholders, who will be impacted by the results of the project. They are the ones that Mark Twain’s quote would apply to best, "I'm all for progress. It is change I don't like.”

During project execution, the project manager uses a process and set of tools and techniques to manage the specifics of the project such as the project charter, statement of work, work breakdown structure, schedule, etc. These activities are focused on the technical side of the project and can challenge a project manager’s “hard skills” especially when there are a lot of unclear requirements, leading to extensive time required to manage change control. The “soft skills” of a project manager need to stay focused on the stakeholders impacted by the change. This includes applying a systematic approach, but still showing empathy, helping these individuals by providing support and understanding, addressing resistance and providing the required knowledge, while helping mitigate the eventual impact of the solution to the organization.

© 2007 allPM.com

Read more >>

Steve Blash is an experienced IT professional and trainer providing business and technology leadership, mentoring and vision. His areas of experience include IT management, project management, business intelligence, web development customer and sales analytics, and business process improvement.
Change Management – It’s About People, Not Just Process
By Frank P. Saladis PMP


Change management is a fundamental part of managing projects. Without a change management process, the project and the team will likely experience a phenomenon that all project managers are aware of – Scope Creep. I have heard other versions of scope creep such as “scope leap” and “scope drift” and even a very unique way of describing scope changes – scope wedgies! I heard that particular term at a PMI® World Congress a few years ago. The speaker was presenting a paper about risk management and introduced that term. She said that that many project managers and teams experience “scope wedgies,” things that creep up on you and are “damn uncomfortable.” I liked the creative way she described what commonly happens to projects that don’t have a change control process or have one that is basically ignored.

Regarding change control and change management, you will find information about it in almost every book written about project management. If you have earned the PMP® credential or are studying for the exam or if you have done any research in the field of project management, you have encountered numerous articles, suggestions, techniques, and processes for managing change. Basically, change management is not a complicated process. During the project kick-off meeting the project manager usually introduces some specific processes for monitoring and controlling the project through the entire life cycle. These processes are discussed among the project team members and other stakeholders and a set of mutually agreed upon project monitoring and control procedures are established and accepted. The basic elements of a change control process are:

© 2007 allPM.com

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Frank P. Saladis (PMP) is Senior Consultant with International Institute for Learning, Inc. He has been involved in the development of standardized Project Management Guidelines (PMGs) for the AT&T Corporate Information Technology Services (Corporate ITS) organization and is the author of the Project Evaluation Review Process (PERP). He is the recipient of the 2006 PMI Linn Stuckenbruck person of the year award.
NEXT GENERATION PM -- Staging Change: The Right Support at the Right Time
By Jocelyn S. Davis, Co-Founder of the Positive Workplace Alliance


The one thing that is certain in life is change --- whether in work-life, personal-life, or our lives as PM’s.

Change.

Whether we are trying to modify our thinking, our feelings, our behavior or our internal business processes, change is complicated business.

And making successful change is essential for project success.

So, you may wonder, how do we change?

First, action is the fourth step in a five-step change model developed by James Prochaska of the University of Rhode Island when he studied people who changed successfully on their own. This model applies to individuals making personal change, but it is a simple and robust insight into what is going on in our corporate change projects.

Interestingly and importantly for PM’s, planning and pre-planning activities are the key to successful change.

Here are the key stages, what they sound like, and what is critical to support change at each individual stage.

Stage 1: What do you mean we need to change? This is the stage at which all change starts, with the clear conviction that we don’t need to change. This stage sounds like this…

  • “We’ve always been successful doing it this way.”
  • “Why would be want to change what works so well?”
  • ”We won’t be nearly as good as we were if we give up our current practices.”
  • “And, you know projects like this one are doomed to fail, so why chance it?”
    • At this stage, the change process is on delicate ground. The change support needed is to provide information, rationale, and motivation only when requested.
    • This stage is really about bringing awareness to those who will be changing about the need for change….not making the case for the change, not preparing for the change, or making the change…..just building awareness of the need for it.
    • Pushing too hard at this stage can harden resistance to change. Go slowly.
    • Be persistent. Be patient.
    • Have your explanation, cost/benefit and return on investment information in your back pocket for use at the next stage.
© 2007 allPM.com

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Jocelyn Davis is the president of Nelson Hart LLC and cofounder with Amanda C E Levy of the Positive Workplace Alliance. Jocelyn’s professional background includes finance; she was the chief financial officer for AARP. She is also trained as an executive coach and trained with and worked for Martin E P Seligman of the University of Pennsylvania through the Authentic Happiness Program. She has served on several boards and currently serves as a director and chairman of the executive committee for the GAVI Fund, the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunizations Fund. Jocelyn is an adjunct professor at the University of Maryland, College Park, in the Clark School of Engineering, Project Management Program where she teaches Managing Project Teams. Jocelyn’s work focuses on how to create workplaces where individuals flourish. Flourishing individuals yield flourishing teams and organizations. JocelynSDavis@NelsonHartLLC.com

Excerpt from The Zen Approach™ to Project Management
By George Pitagorsky, PMP

George Pitagorsky’s new book “The Zen Approach™ to Project Management” teaches you how to deal with projects that are often more complex and stressful than they need to be. The Zen approach™ links the essential principles and techniques of managing projects to a “wisdom” approach for working with complex, people-based activities.

Project management becomes a metaphor for how we can live our lives and, if we follow the wisdom traditions, the way we live our lives becomes a metaphor for how to manage projects. The book guides readers in exploring how to:

  • Remove unnecessary stress and complexity from your projects
  • Apply mindfulness and open mindedness to cut through the barriers to personal self-actualization
  • Manage expectations to ensure that people get what they need, when they need it and for the cost they expected to pay and that they accept what they get
  • Manage performance to cut through interpersonal and intrapersonal issues that get in the way of excellence
  • Break free of self-imposed barriers to creative thinking, conflict resolution and problem solving
  • Remain calm and energetic while being active and effective in the face of chaos, fear, resistance to change, unrealistic demands, conflict and the other aspects of project life that cause stress
To purchase your copy of The Zen Approach™ to Project Management please visit IIL Publishing www.IIL.com/Publishing/Zen.asp

Chapter One: Managing Your Projects Wisely

Are you awake?
“What a question.” You might be thinking. “Of course I’m awake. I’m reading and thinking, am I not?” But what does it mean to be awake in the way that a Buddha is awake?

© 2007 IIL Publishing, New York

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George Pitagorsky, PMP is Senior Enterprise Solutions Advisor for International Institute for Learning (IIL). George has written numerous articles on Project Management, organizational development, conflict resolution and personal development subjects. He is a meditation teacher with over thirty years of experience in Yoga and meditation practice and co-creator of both the Conscious Living and Working Wisely workshops.

Positive Leadership in Project Management – High Definition Project Management (HDPM™)
By Frank P. Saladis PMP

Many people in the project management profession believe that project management hasn’t really changed much since the pyramids were built thousands of years ago. Plans are required, resources must be acquired, and someone has to keep the schedule on track, watch the costs, and meet the customer expectations. It seems that the basic principles of project management really haven’t changed much. That being said, there have been many changes in how projects are managed. New techniques have been developed to facilitate the entire planning process and technology keeps improving. Many of the activities that were performed with pencil and paper have been completely automated and it won’t be long before the forward pass is associated only with football. (For those non PMPs or project management novices, the forward pass is a technique used to determine the early start and early finish of project activities in a network diagram).

Future generations of project managers will wonder why anyone would actually take the time to calculate an early start or early finish. Those terms will probably be used only when talking about the work day or a day on a golf course. We will have computers for just about every activity and maybe one that manages the project also. We will work in an environment that is completely automated and High Definition. But today we still need project managers who possess a variety of skills and have the ability to lead their teams to success.

To stay on top of the issues, manage the changes in technology, meet customer expectations and the demands of management and the organizations that sponsor projects, we need High Definition Project Management™. High definition technology seems to have everyone’s attention these days. HD television images are remarkably clear and HD radio produces incredibly pure tones. You don’t miss much with this technology. So why not apply the HD principle to project management and project leadership? High Definition Project Management and Leadership may be the next big thing in the evolution of project management.

© 2007 allPM.com

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Frank P. Saladis (PMP) is Senior Consultant with International Institute for Learning, Inc. He has been involved in the development of standardized Project Management Guidelines (PMGs) for the AT&T Corporate Information Technology Services (Corporate ITS) organization and is the author of the Project Evaluation Review Process (PERP). He is the recipient of the 2006 PMI Linn Stuckenbruck person of the year award.

Ask Harry! Effectively Communicating with Data
Harry Rever –Six Sigma Black Belt, PMP

Q. - Harry, how can I communicate the status and direction of my project more effectively and persuasively?

Are you one of the lucky ones that has worked on a really well run project before? A project that was smooth, made sense, and just seemed easy, most likely because the team leader or project manager was competent, perhaps even excellent. He or she knew what he was doing; he was calm, cool and collective. The guy probably had it together and instilled confidence in everyone associated with the project. On the other hand, who hasn’t had the misfortune of being associated with one of those projects that, in a word, was nothing less than “brutal?” The kind of project you knew was doomed from the very start. Many times it boils down to an ineffective or incompetent team lead. We’ve all been there. It’s fairly simple really. A good project manager can make even the most difficult project seem easy while a horrible project manager does more damage than good on even the simplest project. We all know the “Project Damager” type and we avoid him or her at all costs. No one wants to work with a project damager and no project manager wants that label. So what can help a project manager become more effective? What specific tool or technique can help a project manager continue his or her rise to a confident, experienced and “in control” team leader? There are obvious criteria to project management greatness: knowledge and expertise in the field of project management, an innate ability to motivate, inspire, and lead people, and having the confidence and unique ability to facilitate a group of stakeholders to a common objective. Perhaps the most important characteristic of any successful project manager is his or her ability to communicate effectively, to persuade others. Effective communication requires a clear and logical message that is believable and easy for the recipient to follow. Communicating effectively with data strengthens a project manager’s position, takes the emotion out of decision making, and helps move a project forward quickly and efficiently. I recommend a simple, yet surprisingly effective approach of communicating with data; the “triple threat” approach to status updates. In the game of basketball, when a player has the ball and is in athletic position (legs bent, ball off to one side) he or she is a “triple threat”. They can either shoot, dribble, or pass. This is a great position to be in and gives the offensive player the advantage. In much the same way, the triple threat approach to communicating gives the project manager the advantage of delivering a clear, fact based message.

© 2007 allPM.com

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Harry Rever is Director of Six Sigma for International Institute for Learning. He is a dynamic presenter and practitioner of Six Sigma and Project Management with an innate ability to teach the concepts of quality improvement in an understandable and more importantly, applicable manner. With over sixteen years as a project manager, process improvement consultant and trainer, Harry has numerous examples of what works (and what doesn’t) when managing projects and applying statistical process improvement concepts. He has experience leading people including supervising project managers, quality analysts, and sales teams. Harry has trained thousands of employees on Six Sigma, process improvement, and project management and he frequently presents at conferences and seminars. He has certifications as a Six Sigma Black Belt, Quality Manager, Quality Consultant and Project Management Professional (PMP). Harry earned his MBA from St. Edward’s University in Austin, Texas and has Bachelors degrees in Marketing and Management from Texas Tech University. harry.rever@iil.com (972) 335-7208

Excel Tips and Tricks
By Bob Umlas, Microsoft® Excel MVP

When using Excel, there are often times when you want to extend or expand some data you have. For example, you might want to set up a schedule and you can enter 9:00 AM in one cell, 9:30 in the cell below, then select both and use the fill handle to create a series of half-hour time increments. The fill handle comes in quite handily for these tasks. But sometimes there are some more odd sequences you might want to create, like instead of filling dates, perhaps you want to skip weekends, or using the same data you may want to increment by months or years, not just days. Or perhaps you have an interesting format in one cell and a different format in the cell below and you’d like to extend that alternating pattern of formats but not fill the data (just the formats). Well, using the fill-handle with the Right-mouse offers these kinds of features, as this article describes.
Right-click drag the Fill Handle for several options
If you use the fill handle and drag with the right-mouse down, you will be presented with a dialog containing several options when you let go:

© 2007 IIL Publishing, New York

Reprinted from the upcoming Second Edition (Fall, 2007) of This Isn’t Excel, It’s Magic! with the permission of IIL Publishing, New York, a division of International Institute for Learning, Inc.

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Bob Umlas has been a Microsoft® Excel MVP since 1995. He has been a beta tester for new versions of Microsoft Excel since version 1.5 (on the Macintosh)! He has led several sessions at Microsoft's Tech-Ed: Maximizing Excel development using Array Formulas, and Excel Tips and Tricks. He is also the author of “This isn’t Excel, it’s Magic!”

Risk Doctor: Problems with Probability
By Dr David Hillson


Available in multiple Languages!* Read this article in:

Chinese
French

German
Portuguese
Spanish

*Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader

Risk is defined in two dimensions: uncertainty and effect on objectives. It is common to use the terms “probability” and “impact” to describe these two dimensions, and assessing the significance of any given risk means considering both. It is relatively simple to assess effect on objectives, since this merely requires defining the situation after the risk has occurred, and then imagining what happens: “If this risk occurred, what would the effect be?” Probability is not so easy however. Risk practitioners and project teams alike experience repeated difficulty in assessing the probability that a given risk might occur. There are a number of reasons for this.

  • Language. In English, different words are often used interchangeably to describe the uncertainty dimension of a risk, such as “probability”, “frequency”, “likelihood” or “chance”. In fact these do not mean the same thing, and confusion can arise if the terms are misused. For example “frequency” describes how often an event or set of circumstances is expected to occur based on previous experience, either in a period of time (e.g. once per year) or in a number of trials (e.g. seven times out of ten). So frequency really applies to repeatable events. This is not the same as “probability” which is a statistical term describing how likely a single uncertain event or set of circumstances is to occur. One solution is to use a more general term such as “likelihood”, and recognise two variants called “probability” (for single events) and “frequency” (for repeatable events).

  • Format. The uncertainty dimension of a risk can be expressed in several ways, including both numerical and textual formats, such as: 35%, “once per month”, 2:7, “unlikely”, “one in six times”, 10-4, “low probability”, 0.2, and so on. Most people have problems interpreting different numerical formats, and even the textual phrases can mean different things. This problem can best be overcome by education, as well as using a set of agreed definitions which everyone understands.

© 2007 Risk Doctor Limited

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Dr. David Hillson (PMP, FAPM, FIRM, MCMI) is an international risk management consultant, and Director of Risk Doctor & Partners ( www.risk-doctor.com). His speciality is risk technology transfer, assisting organisations to develop in-house risk processes, and he is a popular conference speaker and author on risk, winning several awards for his papers. He is recognised internationally as a leading thinker and practitioner in risk management, and his recent emphasis has been the inclusion of proactive opportunity management within the risk process, which is the topic of his latest book "Effective Opportunity Management Exploiting Positive Risk", published in 2003 by Dekker of New York.

David is an active member of the Project Management Institute (PMI) and was a founder member of its Risk Management Specific Interest Group. He received the PMI Distinguished Contribution Award for his work in developing risk management over many years. He is a Fellow of the UK Association for Project Management (APM) and past chairman of its Risk Management Specific Interest Group.  David is also a Fellow of the UK Institute of Risk Management (IRM), a Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (RSA), and a member of the Chartered Management Institute.

David can be contacted at david@risk-doctor.com

PM Crossword Connections™: Change Challenge
By Frank Saladis, PMP

(Click here or the image above for a larger, printable crossword in a new window. )

Across

2          Change from one function to another
3          Push back
4          Modify
9          Sign off as complete
11        Pictorial of a process
13        Temporary fix
14        Stop all changes
15        To go back and forth
17        Involved person
22        Prove, validate
24        Correct or repair
26        Move in a circular fashion
28        Measure of uncertainty
29        Binding agreement
31        Change to suit a new purpose
33        Perform
34        Uncontrolled project growth
37        Guide to the PM Body of knowledge
39        Challenging issue
42        Give and receive
45        Move from one state to another
48        Approved field modification
49        Watch closely
50        Analyze and assess
52        Tangible output
53        Supplier of funding
54        Reference point
55        Synchronize actions

Down

1          Change dimensions
2          Size, shape, and features
5          Sum of the work
6          Trial and error process
7          Step by step actions
8          Detailed review
10        Submit to a request
12        Makes things happen
16        Deviation from the plan
18        Work the plan
19        Work out an agreement
20        Available choices
21        Scheme
23        Result of a decision
24        Ishakawa diagram
25        Keep in line
27        Pass along information
30        Move forward/stay put
31        Give permission
32        _____ Shift
35        Unique endeavor
36        Keep a record of
38        Way of doing something
40        Basis of a problem
41        Solution
43        Alter
44        Give the go-ahead
46        Disagreement
47        Change control board (abbrv.)
51        State of constant change

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